{"updated":"2026-09-30","generated":"2026-09-30T22:20Z","items":[{"id":"mc-1493","src":"metaculus","cat":"catastrophe","q":"Will the human population fall by at least 10% in any 5-year period before 2100?","h":"by 2100","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/","note":"Any cause. 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an AI catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","h":"by 2100","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/","conditional":true,"unit":"forecasters","nu":"forecasters","cond":true,"hist":[["2019-01-30",0.35],["2019-02-22",0.8],["2019-05-30",0.8],["2019-06-22",0.73],["2019-07-28",0.73],["2019-08-21",0.8],["2019-09-21",0.8],["2019-10-20",0.49],["2019-12-12",0.65],["2020-01-31",0.49],["2020-02-14",0.65],["2020-03-20",0.61],["2020-04-26",0.58],["2020-05-24",0.55],["2020-06-19",0.55],["2020-07-24",0.58],["2020-09-18",0.58],["2020-10-28",0.66],["2020-12-10",0.66],["2021-01-29",0.55],["2021-02-11",0.51],["2021-04-26",0.51],["2021-05-29",0.57],["2021-06-16",0.6],["2021-08-24",0.6],["2021-11-26",0.66],["2021-12-30",0.75],["2022-01-23",0.67],["2022-04-16",0.67],["2022-05-30",0.6],["2022-07-30",0.6],["2022-08-31",0.75],["2022-09-21",0.75],["2022-10-22",0.7],["2022-11-09",0.61],["2022-12-28",0.7],["2023-01-29",0.677],["2023-02-19",0.7],["2023-03-30",0.68],["2023-04-28",0.7],["2023-05-30",0.68],["2023-06-26",0.68],["2023-07-21",0.7],["2023-08-28",0.68],["2023-09-26",0.68],["2023-10-28",0.7],["2023-11-28",0.7],["2023-12-26",0.68],["2024-02-29",0.68],["2024-03-28",0.67],["2024-04-25",0.65],["2024-05-30",0.63],["2024-06-13",0.6],["2024-07-29",0.55],["2024-08-24",0.61],["2024-09-03",0.65],["2024-10-26",0.68],["2024-11-10",0.57],["2024-12-27",0.583],["2025-01-31",0.55],["2025-02-25",0.5],["2025-03-25",0.45],["2025-04-30",0.33],["2025-05-16",0.2],["2025-06-22",0.22],["2025-07-24",0.25],["2025-08-31",0.24],["2025-09-21",0.2],["2025-09-29",0.2],["2025-10-08",0.25],["2025-10-14",0.25],["2025-10-23",0.3],["2026-01-25",0.3],["2026-01-29",0.32],["2026-02-05",0.3],["2026-02-14",0.26],["2026-02-21",0.3],["2026-02-27",0.3],["2026-03-08",0.26],["2026-03-16",0.3],["2026-05-07",0.3],["2026-05-16",0.26],["2026-05-22",0.3],["2026-07-04",0.3],["2026-07-14",0.26],["2026-07-20",0.25],["2026-07-28",0.3],["2026-08-04",0.3],["2026-08-12",0.26],["2026-08-18",0.3],["2026-09-24",0.3]],"p":0.3,"n":337.0},{"id":"mc-implied-cat","src":"derived","cat":"catastrophe","q":"Implied: AI causes a catastrophe that kills 10% or more of humanity by 2100","h":"by 2100","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/","note":"Metaculus 1493 × 1495. Our calculation, not a Metaculus forecast.","unit":null,"nu":"","p":0.172,"hist":[["2018-10-31",0.048],["2018-11-07",0.048],["2018-11-19",0.048],["2018-12-19",0.0576],["2018-12-26",0.072],["2019-01-26",0.075],["2019-01-31",0.07],["2019-02-22",0.075],["2019-02-25",0.075],["2019-03-19",0.07],["2019-03-25",0.0952],["2019-04-12",0.0952],["2019-04-15",0.098],["2019-05-30",0.095],["2019-06-18",0.095],["2019-06-25",0.0912],["2019-07-03",0.1064],["2019-08-21",0.114],["2019-08-26",0.09],["2019-09-21",0.098],["2019-10-15",0.0875],["2019-10-20",0.0925],["2019-11-06",0.0875],["2019-11-30",0.0875],["2019-12-31",0.072],["2020-01-25",0.0624],["2020-02-08",0.06],["2020-02-25",0.0525],["2020-03-25",0.0525],["2020-03-30",0.05],["2020-04-21",0.06],["2020-04-26",0.069],["2020-05-24",0.069],["2020-06-25",0.0598],["2020-07-08",0.0736],["2020-07-30",0.0672],["2020-08-15",0.0693],["2020-08-20",0.0759],["2020-09-06",0.0782],["2020-10-23",0.0759],["2020-11-17",0.0759],["2020-11-18",0.069],["2020-12-05",0.075],["2020-12-29",0.0675],["2021-01-29",0.0525],["2021-02-14",0.0525],["2021-02-16",0.05],["2021-03-18",0.048],["2021-03-24",0.0528],["2021-04-26",0.0528],["2021-05-29",0.0484],["2021-05-30",0.044],["2021-06-16",0.044],["2021-07-16",0.05],["2021-07-22",0.0575],["2021-08-22",0.0575],["2021-08-27",0.0506],["2021-09-07",0.0484],["2021-09-29",0.0484],["2021-10-07",0.0506],["2021-10-15",0.046],["2021-11-27",0.048],["2021-12-29",0.06],["2021-12-31",0.05],["2022-01-28",0.06],["2022-02-25",0.06],["2022-03-17",0.069],["2022-04-27",0.069],["2022-04-28",0.057],["2022-05-27",0.054],["2022-06-27",0.062],["2022-07-27",0.074],["2022-07-30",0.0888],["2022-08-23",0.08],["2022-09-21",0.096],["2022-09-27",0.0975],["2022-10-21",0.104],["2022-10-29",0.1056],["2022-11-06",0.1056],["2022-11-09",0.1104],["2022-12-28",0.1204],["2023-01-24",0.1155],["2023-01-28",0.1155],["2023-02-24",0.11385],["2023-02-27",0.14145],["2023-03-29",0.1476],["2023-03-31",0.1548],["2023-04-25",0.1656],["2023-04-28",0.1748],["2023-05-30",0.1748],["2023-06-20",0.1748],["2023-06-27",0.1656],["2023-07-17",0.1748],["2023-07-22",0.152],["2023-08-20",0.152],["2023-08-27",0.144],["2023-09-18",0.1224],["2023-10-27",0.1224],["2023-10-30",0.1224],["2023-11-29",0.1292],["2023-11-30",0.1254],["2023-12-29",0.133],["2023-12-31",0.1295],["2024-01-30",0.148],["2024-01-31",0.144],["2024-02-15",0.144],["2024-03-27",0.132],["2024-04-25",0.1152],["2024-05-25",0.1152],["2024-05-27",0.128],["2024-06-13",0.128],["2024-06-28",0.14],["2024-07-29",0.112],["2024-07-31",0.0924],["2024-08-27",0.099],["2024-08-30",0.0999],["2024-09-14",0.105],["2024-10-24",0.105],["2024-10-26",0.1107],["2024-11-20",0.1107],["2024-11-28",0.13284],["2024-12-27",0.144],["2024-12-30",0.132],["2025-01-27",0.128],["2025-01-31",0.128],["2025-02-20",0.11808],["2025-02-28",0.12915],["2025-03-25",0.105],["2025-03-30",0.108],["2025-04-27",0.1152],["2025-04-28",0.112],["2025-05-29",0.105],["2025-06-28",0.0945],["2025-07-29",0.0945],["2025-08-28",0.0875],["2025-09-20",0.0875],["2025-09-21",0.0875],["2025-09-26",0.0825],["2025-09-28",0.0891],["2025-10-03",0.0891],["2025-10-15",0.0891],["2025-10-19",0.0945],["2025-10-27",0.098],["2025-11-09",0.098],["2025-11-16",0.105],["2025-12-26",0.105],["2026-01-07",0.098],["2026-01-28",0.098],["2026-01-29",0.098],["2026-02-04",0.1008],["2026-02-05",0.0972],["2026-02-15",0.1008],["2026-02-25",0.1008],["2026-03-01",0.09],["2026-03-05",0.0975],["2026-03-10",0.117],["2026-03-12",0.12],["2026-04-07",0.12],["2026-04-14",0.112],["2026-05-07",0.112],["2026-05-08",0.112],["2026-05-16",0.1],["2026-06-03",0.1],["2026-06-10",0.09],["2026-06-26",0.0864],["2026-07-04",0.09],["2026-07-20",0.09],["2026-07-29",0.1008],["2026-08-05",0.1008],["2026-08-11",0.1008],["2026-08-12",0.108],["2026-08-17",0.1008],["2026-08-25",0.108],["2026-08-31",0.117],["2026-09-13",0.117],["2026-09-23",0.16],["2026-09-24",0.172]],"n":null},{"id":"mc-implied-ext","src":"derived","cat":"catastrophe","q":"Implied: AI catastrophe reduces humanity by 95% or more by 2100","h":"by 2100","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/","note":"Metaculus 1493 × 1495 × 2513. Our calculation, not a Metaculus forecast.","unit":null,"nu":"","p":0.0516,"hist":[["2019-01-30",0.02625],["2019-01-31",0.0245],["2019-02-22",0.06],["2019-02-25",0.06],["2019-03-19",0.056],["2019-03-25",0.07616],["2019-04-12",0.07616],["2019-04-15",0.0784],["2019-05-30",0.076],["2019-06-18",0.076],["2019-06-22",0.06935],["2019-06-25",0.06658],["2019-07-03",0.07767],["2019-07-28",0.07767],["2019-08-21",0.0912],["2019-08-26",0.072],["2019-09-21",0.0784],["2019-10-15",0.07],["2019-10-20",0.04532],["2019-11-06",0.04287],["2019-11-30",0.04287],["2019-12-12",0.05687],["2019-12-31",0.0468],["2020-01-25",0.04056],["2020-01-31",0.03058],["2020-02-08",0.0294],["2020-02-14",0.039],["2020-02-25",0.03413],["2020-03-20",0.03202],["2020-03-25",0.03202],["2020-03-30",0.0305],["2020-04-21",0.0366],["2020-04-26",0.04002],["2020-05-24",0.03795],["2020-06-19",0.03795],["2020-06-25",0.03289],["2020-07-08",0.04048],["2020-07-24",0.04269],["2020-07-30",0.03898],["2020-08-15",0.04019],["2020-08-20",0.04402],["2020-09-06",0.04536],["2020-09-18",0.04536],["2020-10-23",0.04402],["2020-10-28",0.05009],["2020-11-17",0.05009],["2020-11-18",0.04554],["2020-12-05",0.0495],["2020-12-10",0.0495],["2020-12-29",0.04455],["2021-01-29",0.02888],["2021-02-11",0.02678],["2021-02-14",0.02678],["2021-02-16",0.0255],["2021-03-18",0.02448],["2021-03-24",0.02693],["2021-04-26",0.02693],["2021-05-29",0.02759],["2021-05-30",0.02508],["2021-06-16",0.0264],["2021-07-16",0.03],["2021-07-22",0.0345],["2021-08-22",0.0345],["2021-08-24",0.0345],["2021-08-27",0.03036],["2021-09-07",0.02904],["2021-09-29",0.02904],["2021-10-07",0.03036],["2021-10-15",0.0276],["2021-11-26",0.03036],["2021-11-27",0.03168],["2021-12-29",0.0396],["2021-12-30",0.045],["2021-12-31",0.0375],["2022-01-23",0.0335],["2022-01-28",0.0402],["2022-02-25",0.0402],["2022-03-17",0.04623],["2022-04-16",0.04623],["2022-04-27",0.04623],["2022-04-28",0.03819],["2022-05-27",0.03618],["2022-05-30",0.0324],["2022-06-27",0.0372],["2022-07-27",0.0444],["2022-07-30",0.05328],["2022-08-23",0.048],["2022-08-31",0.06],["2022-09-21",0.072],["2022-09-27",0.07312],["2022-10-21",0.078],["2022-10-22",0.0728],["2022-10-29",0.07392],["2022-11-06",0.07392],["2022-11-09",0.06734],["2022-12-28",0.08428],["2023-01-24",0.08085],["2023-01-28",0.08085],["2023-01-29",0.07819],["2023-02-19",0.08085],["2023-02-24",0.07969],["2023-02-27",0.09901],["2023-03-29",0.10332],["2023-03-30",0.10037],["2023-03-31",0.10526],["2023-04-25",0.11261],["2023-04-28",0.12236],["2023-05-30",0.11886],["2023-06-20",0.11886],["2023-06-26",0.11886],["2023-06-27",0.11261],["2023-07-17",0.11886],["2023-07-21",0.12236],["2023-07-22",0.1064],["2023-08-20",0.1064],["2023-08-27",0.1008],["2023-08-28",0.09792],["2023-09-18",0.08323],["2023-09-26",0.08323],["2023-10-27",0.08323],["2023-10-28",0.08568],["2023-10-30",0.08568],["2023-11-28",0.08568],["2023-11-29",0.09044],["2023-11-30",0.08778],["2023-12-26",0.08527],["2023-12-29",0.09044],["2023-12-31",0.08806],["2024-01-30",0.10064],["2024-01-31",0.09792],["2024-02-15",0.09792],["2024-02-29",0.09792],["2024-03-27",0.08976],["2024-03-28",0.08844],["2024-04-25",0.07488],["2024-05-25",0.07488],["2024-05-27",0.0832],["2024-05-30",0.08064],["2024-06-13",0.0768],["2024-06-28",0.084],["2024-07-29",0.0616],["2024-07-31",0.05082],["2024-08-24",0.05636],["2024-08-27",0.06039],["2024-08-30",0.06094],["2024-09-03",0.06494],["2024-09-14",0.06825],["2024-10-24",0.06825],["2024-10-26",0.07528],["2024-11-10",0.0631],["2024-11-20",0.0631],["2024-11-28",0.07572],["2024-12-27",0.08395],["2024-12-30",0.07696],["2025-01-27",0.07462],["2025-01-31",0.0704],["2025-02-20",0.06494],["2025-02-25",0.05904],["2025-02-28",0.06457],["2025-03-25",0.04725],["2025-03-30",0.0486],["2025-04-27",0.05184],["2025-04-28",0.0504],["2025-04-30",0.03696],["2025-05-16",0.0224],["2025-05-29",0.021],["2025-06-22",0.0231],["2025-06-28",0.02079],["2025-07-24",0.02363],["2025-07-29",0.02363],["2025-08-28",0.02187],["2025-08-31",0.021],["2025-09-20",0.021],["2025-09-21",0.0175],["2025-09-26",0.0165],["2025-09-28",0.01782],["2025-09-29",0.01782],["2025-10-03",0.01782],["2025-10-08",0.02228],["2025-10-14",0.02228],["2025-10-15",0.02228],["2025-10-19",0.02363],["2025-10-23",0.02835],["2025-10-27",0.0294],["2025-11-09",0.0294],["2025-11-16",0.0315],["2025-12-26",0.0315],["2026-01-07",0.0294],["2026-01-25",0.0294],["2026-01-28",0.0294],["2026-01-29",0.03136],["2026-02-04",0.03226],["2026-02-05",0.02916],["2026-02-14",0.02527],["2026-02-15",0.02621],["2026-02-21",0.03024],["2026-02-25",0.03024],["2026-02-27",0.03024],["2026-03-01",0.027],["2026-03-05",0.02925],["2026-03-08",0.02535],["2026-03-10",0.03042],["2026-03-12",0.0312],["2026-03-16",0.036],["2026-04-07",0.036],["2026-04-14",0.0336],["2026-05-07",0.0336],["2026-05-08",0.0336],["2026-05-16",0.026],["2026-05-22",0.03],["2026-06-03",0.03],["2026-06-10",0.027],["2026-06-26",0.02592],["2026-07-04",0.027],["2026-07-14",0.0234],["2026-07-20",0.0225],["2026-07-28",0.027],["2026-07-29",0.03024],["2026-08-04",0.03024],["2026-08-05",0.03024],["2026-08-11",0.03024],["2026-08-12",0.02808],["2026-08-17",0.02621],["2026-08-18",0.03024],["2026-08-25",0.0324],["2026-08-31",0.0351],["2026-09-13",0.0351],["2026-09-23",0.048],["2026-09-24",0.0516]],"n":null},{"id":"mc-578","src":"metaculus","cat":"catastrophe","q":"Will humans go extinct before 2100?","h":"by 2100","url":"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/","note":"Any 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