:root{
  --bg:#eceff2; --surface:#ffffff; --surface-2:#f5f7f9;
  --ink:#111922; --ink-2:#46515d; --muted:#6f7a86; --line:#d6dce2; --line-2:#e6eaee;
  --accent:#1c5cab; --accent-soft:#dbe7f7; --track:#e7ebef;
  --s-metaculus:#2a78d6; --s-manifold:#eb6834; --s-polymarket:#1baf7a; --s-kalshi:#eda100; --s-derived:#6f7a86; --s-expert:#4a3aa7; --c-blue:#2a78d6; --c-orange:#eb6834;
  --focus:#1c5cab;
  --f-display:"IBM Plex Sans Condensed","Arial Narrow",system-ui,sans-serif;
  --f-body:"IBM Plex Sans",system-ui,-apple-system,"Segoe UI",sans-serif;
  --f-mono:"IBM Plex Mono",ui-monospace,SFMono-Regular,Menlo,monospace;
}
@media (prefers-color-scheme: dark){
  :root:not([data-theme="light"]){
    color-scheme:dark;
    --bg:#0f141a; --surface:#161d25; --surface-2:#1b232c;
    --ink:#eef2f6; --ink-2:#b4bfca; --muted:#8793a0; --line:#2a3440; --line-2:#222b35;
    --accent:#6da7ec; --accent-soft:#1c3050; --track:#243040;
    --s-metaculus:#3987e5; --s-manifold:#d95926; --s-polymarket:#199e70; --s-kalshi:#c98500; --s-derived:#8793a0; --s-expert:#9085e9; --c-blue:#3987e5; --c-orange:#d95926;
    --focus:#86b6ef;
  }
}
:root[data-theme="dark"]{
  color-scheme:dark;
  --bg:#0f141a; --surface:#161d25; --surface-2:#1b232c;
  --ink:#eef2f6; --ink-2:#b4bfca; --muted:#8793a0; --line:#2a3440; --line-2:#222b35;
  --accent:#6da7ec; --accent-soft:#1c3050; --track:#243040;
  --s-metaculus:#3987e5; --s-manifold:#d95926; --s-polymarket:#199e70; --s-kalshi:#c98500; --s-derived:#8793a0; --s-expert:#9085e9; --c-blue:#3987e5; --c-orange:#d95926;
  --focus:#86b6ef;
}
*{box-sizing:border-box}
body{background:var(--bg);color:var(--ink);font:15px/1.55 var(--f-body);padding-inline:16px;padding-block:0 48px}
.wrap{max-width:1120px;margin:0 auto}
a{color:inherit}
:focus-visible{outline:2px solid var(--focus);outline-offset:2px;border-radius:3px}
.num{font-family:var(--f-mono);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}

/* Masthead */
header.mast{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr auto;gap:8px 24px;align-items:end;padding-block:36px 20px;border-bottom:2px solid var(--ink)}
.mast h1{margin:0;font:700 clamp(34px,6vw,56px)/0.95 var(--f-display);letter-spacing:-0.01em;text-wrap:balance}
.mast .dek{grid-column:1/-1;margin:6px 0 0;max-width:68ch;color:var(--ink-2)}
.home-link{grid-column:1/-1;justify-self:start;font:500 12px/1 var(--f-mono);text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.06em;color:var(--muted);text-decoration:none}
.home-link:hover{color:var(--ink)}
.stamp{font:500 12px/1.3 var(--f-mono);color:var(--muted);text-align:right;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.06em}
.stamp b{display:block;color:var(--ink);font-size:14px;letter-spacing:0}

/* Headline tiles */
.tiles{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(4,minmax(0,1fr));gap:1px;background:var(--line);border:1px solid var(--line);margin-top:24px}
.tile{background:var(--surface);padding:16px 18px 18px;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:6px;min-width:0}
.tile .lab{font:600 11px/1.3 var(--f-body);text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.07em;color:var(--muted)}
.tile .big{font:500 34px/1 var(--f-mono);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;letter-spacing:-0.02em}
.tile .big small{font-size:15px;color:var(--ink-2);letter-spacing:0}
.tile .cap{font-size:13px;color:var(--ink-2);line-height:1.4}
.tile .src{margin-top:auto;padding-top:6px}
@media (max-width:860px){.tiles{grid-template-columns:repeat(2,minmax(0,1fr))}}
@media (max-width:460px){.tiles{grid-template-columns:1fr}}

section{margin-top:44px}
.sec-h{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;align-items:baseline;justify-content:space-between;gap:8px 16px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line);padding-bottom:10px;margin-bottom:14px}
.sec-h h2{margin:0;font:700 24px/1.1 var(--f-display);letter-spacing:.005em}
.sec-h p{margin:0;color:var(--ink-2);font-size:14px;max-width:62ch}

/* Chips */
.chip{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:6px;font:500 12px/1 var(--f-body);color:var(--ink-2);white-space:nowrap}
.chip i{width:9px;height:9px;border-radius:2px;display:inline-block;flex:none}
.tag{display:inline-block;font:600 10.5px/1 var(--f-body);letter-spacing:.06em;text-transform:uppercase;color:var(--ink-2);border:1px solid var(--line);padding:3px 5px;border-radius:3px;vertical-align:2px}

/* Controls */
.controls{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:10px 18px;align-items:center;margin-bottom:10px}
.seg{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:4px}
.seg button,.src-toggle{font:500 13px/1 var(--f-body);color:var(--ink-2);background:transparent;border:1px solid var(--line);padding:8px 11px;border-radius:4px;cursor:pointer}
.seg button[aria-pressed="true"]{background:var(--ink);color:var(--bg);border-color:var(--ink)}
.src-toggle{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:6px}
.src-toggle[aria-pressed="false"]{opacity:.45;text-decoration:line-through}
.src-toggle i{width:9px;height:9px;border-radius:2px}
.sortsel{margin-left:auto;display:flex;align-items:center;gap:8px;font-size:13px;color:var(--ink-2)}
.sortsel select{font:500 13px var(--f-body);color:var(--ink);background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:4px;padding:6px 8px}

/* Question table */
.table{background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--line)}
.grp{font:600 11px/1 var(--f-body);text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.08em;color:var(--muted);padding:14px 16px 8px;background:var(--surface-2);border-bottom:1px solid var(--line-2)}
.row{display:grid;grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr) 200px 84px 176px;gap:18px;align-items:center;padding:12px 16px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line-2)}
.row:last-child{border-bottom:0}
.row .q a{text-decoration:none;font-weight:500;line-height:1.35}
.row .q a:hover{text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:3px}
.row .meta{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:6px 12px;align-items:center;margin-top:5px;font-size:12px;color:var(--muted)}
.row .note{font-size:12px;color:var(--muted);margin-top:4px;line-height:1.4}
.bar{display:grid;grid-template-columns:52px 1fr;gap:10px;align-items:center}
.bar .v{font:500 16px/1 var(--f-mono);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;text-align:right}
.bar .t{height:8px;background:var(--track);border-radius:0 4px 4px 0;position:relative}
.bar .t span{position:absolute;inset:0 auto 0 0;background:var(--accent);border-radius:0 4px 4px 0;min-width:2px}
.bar .t .tick{position:absolute;top:-3px;bottom:-3px;width:1px;background:var(--line)}
.part{font:400 12px/1.3 var(--f-mono);color:var(--ink-2);text-align:right;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
.spark{display:block;width:96px;height:26px;flex:none}
.spark path{fill:none;stroke:var(--accent);stroke-width:1.5}
.spark circle{fill:var(--accent)}
.spark-none{font:400 11px/1.2 var(--f-body);color:var(--muted);text-align:right;width:96px}
.trend{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-end;gap:10px}
.delta{font:500 12px/1 var(--f-mono);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;color:var(--ink-2);min-width:58px;text-align:right;white-space:nowrap}
.delta.up::before{content:"▲ ";font-size:9px;vertical-align:1px}
.delta.down::before{content:"▼ ";font-size:9px;vertical-align:1px}
.delta.flat{color:var(--muted)}
.xbtn{all:unset;cursor:pointer;display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:4px;font:500 12px/1 var(--f-body);color:var(--accent);margin-top:6px}
.xbtn:hover{text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:3px}
.xbtn:focus-visible{outline:2px solid var(--focus);outline-offset:2px;border-radius:3px}
.detail{grid-column:1/-1;padding:4px 0 6px}
.detail .dh{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;gap:8px;margin-bottom:6px;font-size:12.5px;color:var(--ink-2)}
.chart{position:relative}
.chart svg{display:block;width:100%;height:auto;overflow:visible}
.chart .grid line{stroke:var(--line-2)}
.chart .grid text,.chart .xax text{fill:var(--muted);font:11px var(--f-mono);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
.chart .xax line{stroke:var(--line)}
.chart .ln{fill:none;stroke-width:2;stroke-linejoin:round;stroke-linecap:round}
.chart .area{opacity:.10}
.chart .endlab{font:500 11.5px var(--f-mono);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
.chart .xh{stroke:var(--ink-2);stroke-width:1;stroke-dasharray:2 3}
.chart .hdot{stroke:var(--surface);stroke-width:2}
.ranges{display:flex;gap:4px}
.ranges button{font:500 12px/1 var(--f-body);color:var(--ink-2);background:transparent;border:1px solid var(--line);padding:6px 9px;border-radius:4px;cursor:pointer}
.ranges button[aria-pressed="true"]{background:var(--ink);color:var(--bg);border-color:var(--ink)}
.hero-chart{background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--line);padding:16px}
.hero-top{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;justify-content:space-between;align-items:flex-start;gap:10px 20px;margin-bottom:10px}
.hero-top h3{margin:0;font:600 17px/1.2 var(--f-display)}
.hero-top p{margin:2px 0 0;font-size:13px;color:var(--ink-2);max-width:62ch}
.lg{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:6px 18px;margin:8px 0 4px}
.lg span{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:7px;font-size:12.5px;color:var(--ink-2)}
.lg svg{flex:none}
.movers{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(auto-fit,minmax(200px,1fr));gap:1px;background:var(--line);border:1px solid var(--line);margin-top:14px}
.mover{background:var(--surface);padding:12px 14px;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:6px;min-width:0}
.mover .mq{font-size:13px;line-height:1.35;color:var(--ink)}
.mover .mv{display:flex;align-items:baseline;gap:10px;font:500 20px/1 var(--f-mono);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
.mover .mv small{font-size:12px;color:var(--ink-2)}
.hint{font-size:12.5px;color:var(--muted);margin:10px 0 0}
.thead{display:grid;grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr) 200px 84px 176px;gap:18px;padding:10px 16px;font:600 11px/1 var(--f-body);text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.07em;color:var(--muted);border-bottom:1px solid var(--line)}
.thead span:nth-child(n+3){text-align:right}
.empty{padding:28px 16px;color:var(--muted)}
@media (max-width:760px){
  .thead{display:none}
  .row{grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr) auto;gap:8px 14px}
  .row .q{grid-column:1/-1}
  .row .bar{grid-template-columns:48px minmax(120px,1fr)}
  .row .trend{grid-column:1/-1;justify-content:flex-start}
  .thead{display:none}
}

/* Expert chart */
.twocol{display:grid;grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1.35fr) minmax(0,1fr);gap:24px;align-items:start}
@media (max-width:900px){.twocol{grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr)}}
.panel{background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--line);padding:16px 16px 10px}
.panel h3{margin:0 0 2px;font:600 17px/1.2 var(--f-display)}
.panel .sub{margin:0 0 8px;font-size:13px;color:var(--ink-2)}
.chart-scroll{overflow-x:auto}
svg text{font-family:var(--f-body)}
.ax text{fill:var(--muted);font-size:11px;font-family:var(--f-mono)}
.ax line{stroke:var(--line-2)}
.ax .base{stroke:var(--line)}
.pname{fill:var(--ink);font-size:12.5px}
.prole{fill:var(--muted);font-size:11px}
.pval{fill:var(--ink-2);font-size:11.5px;font-family:var(--f-mono)}
.dot{fill:var(--s-expert);stroke:var(--surface);stroke-width:2}
.rng{stroke:var(--s-expert);stroke-width:4;stroke-linecap:round;opacity:.55}
.hit{fill:transparent;cursor:default}
.rowhl{fill:var(--accent-soft);opacity:0}
g.p:hover .rowhl{opacity:.6}
.studies{display:flex;flex-direction:column}
.study{display:grid;grid-template-columns:64px minmax(0,1fr);gap:12px;padding:11px 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line-2)}
.study:last-child{border-bottom:0}
.study .v{font:500 18px/1.1 var(--f-mono);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;text-align:right}
.study .w{font-weight:500;line-height:1.35}
.study .n{font-size:12px;color:var(--muted);margin-top:2px}
.study a{text-decoration:none}
.study a:hover{text-decoration:underline}

/* Tooltip */
.tip{position:fixed;z-index:10;pointer-events:none;background:var(--ink);color:var(--bg);font-size:12.5px;line-height:1.4;padding:8px 10px;border-radius:4px;max-width:260px;box-shadow:0 4px 14px rgba(0,0,0,.18)}
.tip b{font-weight:600}

/* Method */
.method{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(2,minmax(0,1fr));gap:14px 32px}
@media (max-width:760px){.method{grid-template-columns:1fr}}
.method div h4{margin:0 0 4px;font:600 15px/1.3 var(--f-display)}
.method div p{margin:0;color:var(--ink-2);font-size:14px;max-width:62ch}
.legend{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:8px 16px;margin-top:6px}
footer{margin-top:44px;padding-top:14px;border-top:1px solid var(--line);font-size:12.5px;color:var(--muted);display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:8px 20px;justify-content:space-between}
@media (prefers-reduced-motion:no-preference){.bar .t span{transition:width .25s ease}}
html{-webkit-text-size-adjust:100%}
body{margin:0}
img{max-width:100%}
[hidden]{display:none!important}